When Lilly shuts down Tirz compounding in the US, is it conceivable for them to shut down Chinese peptide suppliers or prevent our shipments? Some reddit comment was going on about how they would train customs dogs to sniff Tirz but that sounds crazy right?
Lily sending cease and desist to compounders - do we worry?
- Thread starter meowTime
- Start date
dionysos
Senior Member
They’ve already got a big pack of Tirz-sniffing Attorneys so why not dogs too!
/s
Is Lily focused on those who infringe on Mounjaro/Zepbound trademarks, or generic tirzepatide more widely, I wonder.
I’ve no sympathy for the trademark infringers. If the rest of the compounders are effectively suppressed the inconvenience will be huge!
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goodvibes671
New_Member
If this turns out to be true, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start training the dogs to sniff out Retatrutide too.
Jerks.
dionysos
Senior Member
That WOULD be a problem! I LIIIKE Reta far more than TirzepatideIf this turns out to be true, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start training the dogs to sniff out Retatrutide too.
I figure once they shut down all the compounders, which isn't difficult, why would they not focus on imports? The company has no morals anyway. Depends if it's actually feasible to detect GLPs in customs or not.
PeptideJedi
Member
When Reta actually hits market you bet they will do same as tirz..If this turns out to be true, I wouldn’t be surprised if they start training the dogs to sniff out Retatrutide too.
MrsRoper_1977
Member
Possibly. This is the number one reason I have backed off sharing sources etc. Anyone that joins these forums or discord servers could be the bad guys in disguise. We can’t afford to lose every avenue of access to these life-saving peptides. Sorry…
MarisWinter
New_Member
Is
this a thing? Should we be careful? I hadn’t considered that…….hum,
MrsRoper_1977
Member
I don’t know. But EL gets their greedy claws into everything. Wouldn’t put it past them to at least try. But hopefully the Chinese government would recognize the benefits to their economy to sell peptides overseas.
Dogs sniffing tirz lol no too expensive to train and not worth it . How are they going to smell vacuum sealed bags and vials? No but I suspect Eli Lilly will put pressure on the Chinese government to suppress peptide manufacturing of tirz
MiniatureSnail
New_Member
Yeah! And there was some asshole in the tirzepatide compound subreddit last week just dropping this website all over their post (which the mods did eventually remove..the post, not the links to this sub, though). It took me months to find my way here, and people are just going to post it all over Reddit? Idiots.
MrsRoper_1977
Member
Ugh! That’s annoying. I followed the bread crumbs, never got outright access/information. When you work for it then you appreciate it more.
dionysos
Senior Member
You needn't worry @MiniatureSnail Everything Lily needs to know they get much faster and more accurately than by cruising through inconsequential discussion forums.
What they achieve by targetting high level compounders and a few peptide vendors is suppression of conversations that would be beneficial to prospective consumers of non-branded peptide products.
It is very like the IRS strategy of inducing fear to widely enhance compliance.
raw_oyster_eater
New_Member
There's are only so many people who are do it yourselfers. It takes more effort and smarts to get to this level. I don't see it as being on big pharma's radar.
MarisWinter
New_Member
Gotcha,
Gotcha Boss! I was afraid trying to help people get here…..so thanks!
dionysos
Senior Member
I do think it is a good thing to be circumspect in how we become visible. For myself I make a judgement about who to invite to GLP1forum.com. Of the several hundred people I've chatted with recently and delivered US Vendor spreadsheets to I've invited only a small percentage. Certainly I do not think sourcing from China is a thing most American consumers are ready for and would not post a link to GLP1forum.com openly on Reddit.
FourthQuintile
New Member
There's basically zero chance of them shutting down the shipments at the point-of-entry anytime soon. CBP are already struggling mightily with stopping the flow of fentanyl and fentanyl precursors from arriving into the USA. They are far too underfunded to stop even this outright illegal, outright deadly activity. As constituted now, they have no chance of totally stopping tirzepatide imports. Dogs are extremely unlikely to ever be trained to sniff for tirzepatide, or retatrutide, or any of that. Few to no dogs are currently trained to sniff for AAS (anabolic-androgenic steroids), which are schedule III controlled drugs and have a much longer history of illegal transport and importation, as well as damage from improper use; GLP-1s don't have this.
Dogs also have a much, much higher miss rate than is believed. It's borderline absurd that a dog sniff "hit" is allowed as probable cause for a search, especially when the dog frequently "hits" in order to please its trainer/commanding officer. One of the oldest examples for this (though it was a horse) is called the "Clever Hans" effect. There are many others. The most frequently cited study is a 2011 study out of UC Davis with lead author Lisa Lit.
As an example, a recent case out of Texas likely indicates a false positive: the K-9 officer dog had an unspecified "hit" on the front passenger's side. What was found there? An airline boarding pass. Now, these people were transporting ~$250,000 worth of gold bars, and had entered the USA outside of legal points of entry. But the gold was found behind the driver's side, the opposite side of the vehicle. Is a dog trained for sniffing out gold? No. For airline boarding passes? No. Was there narcotics in the vehicle? No. Was the dog likely brought in to provide cover for a more in-depth search of vehicle? Seems like it. You can find this by searching for Van Zandt County Chinese nationals.
As for shutting down producers, the Chinese chemical sector is a large enough part of the Chinese economy that this is very improbable. EL can definitely try to pressure the Chinese government on this front, but their chances of broad success at shutting down the producers are very low. The export of chemicals from China is a market worth over $70 billion. EL's entire annual revenue last year was half this.
Finally, the amount of profits they are leaving on the table are far less than anything EL would claim. Users of compounding services, or researchers, mostly consist of people who outright don't have $1,000-1,500 monthly to spend on this. Most of the people who have that money are just spending it on the prescription product, as it's a lot more straightforward to do that rather than going down the compounding or research routes. A theoretical outright shutdown of compounding or research routes would just result in many of those on those paths ceasing their use, or switching for an alternate option. Additionally, the semaglutide exclusive patent expires in 2032; presumably costs for prescription sema will come way down at that time once a generic is legally available.
I also believe that even any move to limit supply would never result in full and total shutdown. It might get slightly harder to find sources, or slightly harder to get shipments, and this would likely result in price increases. But impossible? Doubtful.
Short version: it ain't happenin' and I ain't worried about it.
So hope you are right!
Gwenhwyfar227
Member
I have been on Tirz for several months..12.5 dose now...did you go completely to Reta? Or just stacking. May I ask what dose? I got one to try. Cagri I didn't feel the suppression everyone claims and my goodness I was exhaustedThat WOULD be a problem! I LIIIKE Reta far more than Tirzepatide
dionysos
Senior Member
Yes, I have gone completely to Retatrutide from Tirzepatide.
I began with stacking 2.5mg of Reta mid-week over 10mg of Tirzepatide on Saturdays,
It became quickly apparent that Reta was doing the heavy lifting.
I did a rapid rebalancing by upping Reta 2.5mg per week while reducing Tirz the same amount - so fully Tirz to fully Reta in 3 weeks or so.
I began with stacking 2.5mg of Reta mid-week over 10mg of Tirzepatide on Saturdays,
It became quickly apparent that Reta was doing the heavy lifting.
I did a rapid rebalancing by upping Reta 2.5mg per week while reducing Tirz the same amount - so fully Tirz to fully Reta in 3 weeks or so.
