Novo Nordisk shares tumble as weight-loss drug trial data disappoints

[penewbie]

Novo Nordisk shares tumble as weight-loss drug trial data disappoints

Obesity drug CagriSema misses goal of 25% body weight reduction

www.ft.com

CagriSema helped patients lose an average of 22.7 per cent of their body weight in a late-stage trial, Novo Nordisk said on Friday, only marginally beating the results of Mounjaro, a rival treatment from Eli Lilly.Novo Nordisk had targeted an average of 25 per cent weight loss from its new drug.Martin Holst Lange, the company’s executive vice-president for development, said that only 57 per cent of patients had received the highest dose of the drug. “We are encouraged by the weight-loss profile of CagriSema,” he said.The drugmaker’s shares were down as much as 27 per cent in mid-morning trading in Denmark before mounting a partial recovery to trade 20 per cent lower.

 

[exploitedworkerbee]

the ultimate GLP1 collab: Lilly x Novo. give the people cagritirz and watch the stonks go up and to the right.

 

[m100568]

The analysis I saw was that this makes cagrisema a competitor to tirzepatide, not retatrutide. That would significantly change their position in the market over the next several years.

 

[penewbie]

The analysis I saw was that this makes cagrisema a competitor to tirzepatide, not retatrutide. That would significantly change their position in the market over the next several years.

Exactly on the money.

Novo just lost the GLP1 race. It is still going do make semi truck loads of money, but not nearly as much as they and the stock market expected.

 

[noteablequotable]

The analysis I saw was that this makes cagrisema a competitor to tirzepatide, not retatrutide. That would significantly change their position in the market over the next several years.

I understand why the stock dropped but they still have time to course correct. They have other weight loss medications in their pipeline, and I believe they are trying out other combinations, not just Cagrilinitide and Semaglutide.

I am also curious about which GLP1 will end up being least harmful for human health long term. It sounds like MariTide, while very effective, resulted in some bone density loss. I'm sure we will see similar issues emerge for other GLP-1s down the line.

 

[exploitedworkerbee]

I understand why the stock dropped but they still have time to course correct. They have other weight loss medications in their pipeline, and I believe they are trying out other combinations, not just Cagrilinitide and Semaglutide.

I am also curious about which GLP1 will end up being least harmful for human health long term. It sounds like MariTide, while very effective, resulted in some bone density loss. I'm sure we will see similar issues emerge for other GLP-1s down the line.

The wallstreetbets guys should have asked us. We all knew cagrisema would be similar to tirz and not substantially better.

 

[clevesand]

Don't forget that the US is still a filthy capitalist society that is compromised by pharma. Novo will make it cheaper and insurance companies will force patients to use it and approve very few prior authorizations for tirz. It's still possible it makes more money than Tirz in the US

 

[Sunflower]

CagriSema helped patients lose an average of 22.7 per cent of their body weight in a late-stage trial, Novo Nordisk said on Friday, only marginally beating the results of Mounjaro, a rival treatment from Eli Lilly.Novo Nordisk had targeted an average of 25 per cent weight loss from its new drug

So it seems like Novo’s biggest mistake was publicly overestimating their target by a few percent. The results don’t necessarily make the drug look bad—there’s a tradeoff sometimes to losing the most weight the quickest on a drug. But whether it confers any edge over Tirz calls for comparative 2+ year studies.

“Barclays analyst Emily Field said the market was having an “emotional reaction” to Novo Nordisk not hitting the 25 per cent weight loss bar that it had set.”
I don’t disagree with that! Stocks are notoriously reactively driven by emotions. 😆 The numbers don’t look bad here.

“Field added that the company had told her it was disappointed and was trying to work out why so many patients had not taken the highest dose of the drug.”
Why the push for needing patients on the highest dose when the study was barely over a year long? The fact that it works so well at a lower dose seems like good news.

Anecdotally, we have heard here that many on cagri still feel extreme lethargy, not dissimilar to tirz, and occasionally worse, no?

 

[noteablequotable]

Don't forget that the US is still a filthy capitalist society that is compromised by pharma. Novo will make it cheaper and insurance companies will force patients to use it and approve very few prior authorizations for tirz. It's still possible it makes more money than Tirz in the US

Spot on. Everyone is still being told that these medications need to be taken for life and at $1k per month, most will quickly approach the cost of bariatric surgery. I absolutely believe that insurance companies will stick you on the cheapest ones and only let you move up if you stop losing weight or are a nonresponder.

 

[geoguy78]

Exactly on the money.

Novo just lost the GLP1 race. It is still going do make semi truck loads of money, but not nearly as much as they and the stock market expected.

The company that brings an oral med with over 25% average weight loss to market first will be the true winner

 

[penewbie]

Spot on. Everyone is still being told that these medications need to be taken for life and at $1k per month, most will quickly approach the cost of bariatric surgery. I absolutely believe that insurance companies will stick you on the cheapest ones and only let you move up if you stop losing weight or are a nonresponder.

That's gonna be generic sema in about 5-8 years. No profit for NN.

 

[clayd]

So it seems like Novo’s biggest mistake was publicly overestimating their target by a few percent. The results don’t necessarily make the drug look bad—there’s a tradeoff sometimes to losing the most weight the quickest on a drug. But whether it confers any edge over Tirz calls for comparative 2+ year studies.

“Barclays analyst Emily Field said the market was having an “emotional reaction” to Novo Nordisk not hitting the 25 per cent weight loss bar that it had set.”
I don’t disagree with that! Stocks are notoriously reactively driven by emotions. 😆 The numbers don’t look bad here.

“Field added that the company had told her it was disappointed and was trying to work out why so many patients had not taken the highest dose of the drug.”
Why the push for needing patients on the highest dose when the study was barely over a year long? The fact that it works so well at a lower dose seems like good news.

Anecdotally, we have heard here that many on cagri still feel extreme lethargy, not dissimilar to tirz, and occasionally worse, no?

Much worse than tirz. I'm guessing that people didn't go to the highest dose because of side effects mainly.

22% is a great result, good news for all of us here that the market options are expanding

 

[jdaniel30]

Don't forget that the US is still a filthy capitalist society that is compromised by pharma. Novo will make it cheaper and insurance companies will force patients to use it and approve very few prior authorizations for tirz. It's still possible it makes more money than Tirz in the US

Actually, if Novo drops their prices to a reasonable level, they deserve to take business from Lilly. I would gladly pay 200 dollars for a month of Semaglutide over the 1200 for Tirz. Someone has to lower the bar for the cost of GLP1.
In any case, I have a 5 year stockpile of Tirz and a -70 lab freezer to store it in while watching the system work itself out.

 

[normal]

I've got a strong guess on
why only 57% went to max dose. The cagril side effects are no joke. Read up on the extreme fatigue most people experience on the smallest starting doses of cagril. It probably wasn't worth the extra few % of weight loss vs. not being able to get out of bed from exhaustion.

 

[keangkong]

The analysis I saw was that this makes cagrisema a competitor to tirzepatide, not retatrutide. That would significantly change their position in the market over the next several years.

I don't disagree with your analysis. With that said, I follow the advice of Jack Bogle: Invest in an index fund and don't try to predict which stocks will do best. Also include some bonds in your fund so that it doesn't go down excessively in tough economic times.

 

[keangkong]

Actually, if Novo drops their prices to a reasonable level, they deserve to take business from Lilly. I would gladly pay 200 dollars for a month of Semaglutide over the 1200 for Tirz. Someone has to lower the bar for the cost of GLP1.
In any case, I have a 5 year stockpile of Tirz and a -70 lab freezer to store it in while watching the system work itself out.

Why pay $200 per month for semaglutide? You could have bought semaglutide from Tracy a few days ago for $135 and had enough to last for a year and half if you take the full dose.

 

[clevesand]

Why pay $200 per month for semaglutide? You could have bought semaglutide from Tracy a few days ago for $135 and had enough to last for a year and half if you take the full dose.

I think this person is suggesting the market would easily pay $200 a month. I agree. Most people aren't going to go the Tracy route. I actually think moat of the Tirzreddit soccer moms will gladly pay the $400 Monjauro copay program when compounding ends.

 

[jdaniel30]

Why pay $200 per month for semaglutide? You could have bought semaglutide from Tracy a few days ago for $135 and had enough to last for a year and half if you take the full dose.

I was merely stating a price point where many people would actually go with a name brand supplier over compounders. My PCP offered to prescribe name brand GLP1 meds but we both agreed that the price point is unreasonable.
The unfortunate fact is that there is going to be a lot of pressure to shut down and discredit compounders by those who profit from the current high prices.

 

[GimmeABreak]

The unfortunate fact is that there is going to be a lot of pressure to shut down and discredit compounders by those who profit from the current high prices.

There already is. Unless something changes the FDA will attempt to shut down compounders (of Tirz) in the next 60-90 days and I think we can all agree that Sema is next.

 

[geoguy78]

Much worse than tirz. I'm guessing that people didn't go to the highest dose because of side effects mainly.

22% is a great result, good news for all of us here that the market options are expanding

People probably fell asleep at some point. Cagri seems to knock people out.

 

[Sunflower]

Much worse than tirz. I'm guessing that people didn't go to the highest dose because of side effects mainly.

22% is a great result, good news for all of us here that the market options are expanding

Also good news if you want to buy NOVO today at $85 like I did and later use the inevitable profits for more bootleg peptides. 💸💰

 

[clayd]

People probably fell asleep at some point. Cagri seems to knock people out.

I definitely had a couple unplanned naps, and I am not a napper

 

[keangkong]

I definitely had a couple unplanned naps, and I am not a napper

I have trouble understanding why I, a user of tirzepatide, would want to switch to using cagrilintidine and semaglutide. Semaglutide alone, based on the studies, seems to have about the same side effects as tirzepatide. Anecdotal reports suggest semaglutide has more side effects. Why not stick with tirzepatide and achieve about the same level of weight loss. At least with reta anecdotes suggest that it causes greater weight loss than tirzepatide although the longer trials have yet to be completed.

 

[exploitedworkerbee]

I have trouble understanding why I, a user of tirzepatide, would want to switch to using cagrilintidine and semaglutide. Semaglutide alone, based on the studies, seems to have about the same side effects as tirzepatide. Anecdotal reports suggest semaglutide has more side effects. Why not stick with tirzepatide and achieve about the same level of weight loss. At least with reta anecdotes suggest that it causes greater weight loss than tirzepatide although the longer trials have yet to be completed.

Eventually tirz stops working the same. Cagri makes it feel like it did in the good ol days. But also makes many of us need a nap

 

[Sunflower]

I also bought Novo after the price drop because they're not a GLP-1 development company, they're a pharmaceutical development company. Like Lilly, they have other things in the pipeline that will eventually produce value for shareholders.

Yep, they are in stage 3 trials for Rybelsus (oral sema) to market for Alzheimer’s disease mitigation. Also stage 2 trials for Monlunabant, which targets the cannabinoid type 1 receptor, regulating appetite and metabolism. (A possible weight loss alternative for patient who can’t tolerate GLP1s or have food addictions).

Icodec, their 1x weekly insulin injection drug is approved in Europe, Japan, and Canada, and likely soon, the US.

 

[clayd]

I have trouble understanding why I, a user of tirzepatide, would want to switch to using cagrilintidine and semaglutide. Semaglutide alone, based on the studies, seems to have about the same side effects as tirzepatide. Anecdotal reports suggest semaglutide has more side effects. Why not stick with tirzepatide and achieve about the same level of weight loss. At least with reta anecdotes suggest that it causes greater weight loss than tirzepatide although the longer trials have yet to be completed.

I use tirz and stack a little cagri on day 5 to mitigate hunger

 

[keangkong]

I use tirz and stack a little cagri on day 5 to mitigate hunger

That makes more sense to me. I bet it works better than semaglutide + cagrilintidine.

 

[keangkong]

There already is. Unless something changes the FDA will attempt to shut down compounders (of Tirz) in the next 60-90 days and I think we can all agree that Sema is next.

It looks like it may last a little longer than that since the FDA has agreed to hold off enforcement against parties to the lawsuit against it until a judge rules on a motion for a preliminary injunction if the parties request one within two weeks. It is unknown whether the FDA would attempt to enforce against nonparty compounding pharmacies if it stopped enforcing against parties to the lawsuit.

 

[clayd]

That makes more sense to me. I bet it works better than semaglutide + cagrilintidine.

We'll see, I got a couple vials of cagrisema pretty cheap so I might try that on day 5 instead of just cagri in the next few weeks

 

[keangkong]

Don't forget that the US is still a filthy capitalist society that is compromised by pharma. Novo will make it cheaper and insurance companies will force patients to use it and approve very few prior authorizations for tirz. It's still possible it makes more money than Tirz in the US

Unlikely. They're still charging a great deal for semaglutide.

 

[noteablequotable]

I also bought Novo after the price drop because they're not a GLP-1 development company, they're a pharmaceutical development company. Like Lilly, they have other things in the pipeline that will eventually produce value for shareholders.

Looks like FDA just approved a drug for people with Hemophilia yesterday. I wonder if it will impact the stock at all.

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/fda-approves-novo-nordisks-alhemo

 

[Grannuaile]

There already is. Unless something changes the FDA will attempt to shut down compounders (of Tirz) in the next 60-90 days and I think we can all agree that Sema is next.

And let us not forget, Eli Lilly and Novo are learning their lessons. They’re not gonna let the compounders eat their lunch any longer. Eli Lilly is suing to categorize Reta as a biologic, not a drug, therefore no compounding can ever legitimately arise.

Once I read that, I knew I would be entering Greyland, and I am so happy to find myself here on the island of misfit toys with you lot. ;-)

 

[Grannuaile]

Looks like FDA just approved a drug for people with Hemophilia yesterday. I wonder if it will impact the stock at all.

https://www.thepharmaletter.com/fda-approves-novo-nordisks-alhemo

Dude. That is a serious ass newsletter - £820 a year - in British pound sterling no less.

 

[penewbie]

And let us not forget, Eli Lilly and Novo are learning their lessons. They’re not gonna let the compounders eat their lunch any longer. Eli Lilly is suing to categorize Reta as a biologic, not a drug, therefore no compounding can ever legitimately arise.

Once I read that, I knew I would be entering Greyland, and I am so happy to find myself here on the island of misfit toys with you lot. ;-)

EL doesn't have much of a legal case there, I wouldn't worry too much about that angle.

What's more likely in my eyes is that EL would make sure to be well positioned to meet demand for reta starting from day 1, either by pricing it prohibitively or massively increasing supply.

 

[nccane]

I unfortunately think Novo "disappears" and the stocks continue to tumble due to their us business. Many competitiors with amylin drugs coming eventually and tirz/reta.

They will only be competing on price before too long.

 

[JohnnyGobbs]

Novo is like the largest company in Europe. It’s not going anywhere.

 

[AndyPanda]

Yep, they are in stage 3 trials for Rybelsus (oral sema) to market for Alzheimer’s disease mitigation. Also stage 2 trials for Monlunabant, which targets the cannabinoid type 1 receptor, regulating appetite and metabolism. (A possible weight loss alternative for patient who can’t tolerate GLP1s or have food addictions).

Icodec, their 1x weekly insulin injection drug is approved in Europe, Japan, and Canada, and likely soon, the US.

Anyone have experience with the oral Semaglutide? While looking for cheaper Glutathione I found a source in India that has Rybelsus in 3mg, 7mg, and 14mg.

 

[penewbie]

Anyone have experience with the oral Semaglutide? While looking for cheaper Glutathione I found a source in India that has Rybelsus in 3mg, 7mg, and 14mg.

I don't have any personal experience with it, but the research shows those dosages suck.

 

[keangkong]

I unfortunately think Novo "disappears" and the stocks continue to tumble due to their us business. Many competitiors with amylin drugs coming eventually and tirz/reta.

They will only be competing on price before too long.

If I was able to accurately predict which stocks would go up and go down, I'd quit my day job and just invest. I follow the investment advice of Jack Bogle, the founder of Vanguard: "Don't look for the needle in the haystack. Just buy the haystack!” In other words, invest in index funds tied to the market as a whole and you'll likely outperform even most professional investors over the long term.