Looks like Novo is hurting

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Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

 
Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

1775900677091.webp
 
Oh crap, I didn't even look at the date lol. It just popped up on my FB feed.

Happens to me all the time too! I read stuff that pops up on my feeds and I’m thinking it’s new news.
 
Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

View attachment 19585


Ironically, EL was the original modern insulin manufacturer.
 
Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

The orals are still and interesting pursuit, I think 10-15 are in pipeline and only a few of those will shake out. Conveglipron seemed interesting. Revisiting this in 24 months will be such a completely different story --new research/ discovery/ therapies

 
Ironically, EL was the original modern insulin manufacturer.
EL bought the process from Genentech, who developed the first synthetic insulin product which was manufactured using recombinant DNA inserted into e.coli and fermented.

I worked for Genentech (2007) when one of my coworkers was stealing HGH from the clinical production line and selling it at his brother’s bodybuilding store. At the time it was one of the largest bust of the sales of steroids.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/09...man-growth-hormone-sold-it-in-san-jose-store/
 
Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.
CagriSema may help things if/when released next year, but Eli Lilly's reta may out next year too:

Gemini said:
FeatureCagriSemaRetatrutide
Primary MechanismSatiety & Slow DigestionSatiety & Energy Expenditure
Est. Weight Loss~23%~25%+
Nausea RiskHigh (due to dual gastric slowing)Moderate to High (during titration)
Heart Rate ImpactNeutralMild Increase (Glucagon effect)
Liver HealthGoodExcellent (Best-in-class fat clearance)
Target Release20272027

From the article you posted regarding orfo, which is by Eli Lilly:

Also haunting Novo is Lilly’s terribly-named weight loss pill, orforglipron, which a trial released in April showed was roughly as effective as Ozempic, upending expectations that an oral drug would fall short of an injectable. It’s yet to hit the market, but a weight loss pill would almost certainly rake in tons of more sales, being far more convenient than an injection. They would also, in theory, be cheaper to produce.

But the latest trial from Eli Lilly, released Thursday, brought those expectations back down to Earth. It showed that Lilly’s pill helped patients lose slightly less weight than analysts were expecting and put it more on par with Novo’s existing pill, Rybelsus. And the side effects are worrying: nearly a quarter of patients on the highest dose dropped out of Lilly’s study, Jared Holz, a health-care strategist at Mizuho Securities, told Bloomberg. It was a rare reprieve for Novo; shares climbed by over six percent on Thursday morning following the news, though overall its stock price is down nearly 60 percent over the past year.

For its part, Novo has slashed its drug prices this year and launched a direct-to-consumer online pharmacy to recoup sales lost to rivals and compounders, but it hasn’t staunched the bleeding. Overall, Novo’s sales of its semaglutide drugs grew by eight percent year on year in the first half, a steep drop from 21 percent last year.
 
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Do you want the weight loss drug that is less effective and causes more side effects? I think that is the question most people are asking themselves. EL has a lock on the market for the next couple of years. They are positioned well with Tirz, Reta and Eloralintide either alone or in combination with Tirz. Beyond 2 years, who knows. It is a gold rush and everyone wants to get in on the bonanza. Once a month convenience alternatives are coming. Tirz-like competitors that perform better are coming. Reta competitors are coming. Combinations that preserve muscle are coming.

We are in a weird market situation of a duopoly right now and EL is coming out ahead. That will change. I expect that the competition will drive down prices and doctors will have many choices that they can tailor to the patient's needs in the future. I strongly feel that in 5 years we will look back at this period and shake our heads in disbelief that we lived through this duopoly stranglehold on the market.

In the meantime, EL is milking it for everything they can get. The only thing that NN can do to compete is drop their price, and they seem reluctant to do that.
 
Yeah, although this is a fairly dated article from last summer, it doesn’t look like things have changed much for NN since then. I think the bigger issue for NN than compounding is that their products are less effective than Lilly’s. I read that NN is more like an insulin manufacturer that dabbles in medications, and that EL has far superior operations, development, and manufacturing capabilities.

View attachment 19585
Take a peak at Lilly stock. I was going to be buyer, and pretty big amount dollar wise when it got closer to FDA approval. The current price made me choke a little. I still might jump, but I'll see how things are overall market wise.
 
Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

I get the frustration with pharma.... Novo has made massive profits off drugs , and pricing/access issues are very real. People feel that.
But the leap from “they’re making a lot of money” to “hope they go under” is where it falls apart for me.

Big pharma isn’t just this one sided awful villain in a movie......it’s also the engine behind insanely expensive, high risk research. Most drugs fail. The ones that succeed fund the next wave. Without that system (flawed as it is), we don’t get:
GLP-1s in the first place
cancer therapies
antibiotics pipelines (already fragile)
etc, etc.

A more grounded take for me is :
Push for better regulation, pricing transparency, and access while supporting innovation and accountability.

Be careful what you wish for.... The world would be totally different without innovation in medicine
 
We don't want to see any of them "go down". As difficult as the business model is for patients/consumers, these companies are the source of the grey market. If they stop developing new products, we stop getting better and better options to research.
 
Do you want the weight loss drug that is less effective and causes more side effects? I think that is the question most people are asking themselves. EL has a lock on the market for the next couple of years. They are positioned well with Tirz, Reta and Eloralintide either alone or in combination with Tirz. Beyond 2 years, who knows. It is a gold rush and everyone wants to get in on the bonanza. Once a month convenience alternatives are coming. Tirz-like competitors that perform better are coming. Reta competitors are coming. Combinations that preserve muscle are coming.

We are in a weird market situation of a duopoly right now and EL is coming out ahead. That will change. I expect that the competition will drive down prices and doctors will have many choices that they can tailor to the patient's needs in the future. I strongly feel that in 5 years we will look back at this period and shake our heads in disbelief that we lived through this duopoly stranglehold on the market.

In the meantime, EL is milking it for everything they can get. The only thing that NN can do to compete is drop their price, and they seem reluctant to do that.
Duopoly is likely to be here to stay, because while the overall industry is "unconcentrated," the individual markets for specific diseases are often highly concentrated oligopolies. Try to do the exercise for your favorite class of drugs. Your insurance likely covers at most 3 brands. Generics don't count.

This is also valid for large swaths of the US economy itself.
 
Duopoly is likely to be here to stay, because while the overall industry is "unconcentrated," the individual markets for specific diseases are often highly concentrated oligopolies. Try to do the exercise for your favorite class of drugs. Your insurance likely covers at most 3 brands. Generics don't count.

This is also valid for large swaths of the US economy itself.

My favorite class of drugs is glp-1 receptor agonists 😝. My insurance doesn’t cover any of them 😝.
 
Lilly’s "terribly-named weight loss pill", orforglipron, received FDA approval on April 1 (no joke!). The brand name is Foundayo, which is less awful than I expected.

Will be interesting to see how it's received in the market, and what the pricing will end up being. I think the prices mentioned were somewhere in the range of the price of Zepbound for people not covered by insurance, so not great...
 
If you're interested in the history of the pharmaceutical industry and markets, in particular Novo Nordisk and E. Lilly this podcast is essential.
 
EL bought the process from Genentech, who developed the first synthetic insulin product which was manufactured using recombinant DNA inserted into e.coli and fermented.

I worked for Genentech (2007) when one of my coworkers was stealing HGH from the clinical production line and selling it at his brother’s bodybuilding store. At the time it was one of the largest bust of the sales of steroids.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/09...man-growth-hormone-sold-it-in-san-jose-store/

"In the two local cases, agents seized a total of 73 bottles of Human Growth Hormone; 79 vials of steroids, some crystal methamphetamine...."

Well, that one way to shed some pounds.
 
I am a bit surprised that semaglutide is still fairly popular. Given it is not cheaper, is both less effective at weight loss and has more side effects than tirzepatide, it is really hard to think of a good reason for starting anyone on it in preference to tirz. It has more accumulated evidence for benefits outside of weight loss - for cardiovascular and kidney risks etc, but all the research on tirz so far strongly suggests it is a class effect and is very likely to be the same. Obviously if someone is already on it and it is working for obesity or diabetes switching makes little sense, but retaining old patients is not going to help their share price much.

Unfortunately for novo, lily just picked better drugs to develop or was luckier. Cagri was pretty disappointing for weight loss on its own, and combined with sema is nearly as good as tirz but with more side effects, and both oral ozempic and orfoglipron are also less effective and have more side effects than tirz. Cagri looks good as an add on to reta or tirz at low doses but given the different ownership , not likely to even get studies. Oral ozempic never got promoted much and was not released everywhere, it definitely is not available in Aus, maybe due to initial production limitations so they focused on the injectable version? Orfoglipron could end up popular if people want to avoid injections, I wonder if ozempic being around for so long and being talked about so much has reduced peoples' aversion to injectable drugs a bit?
Unless novo can get their triple agonist out before reta which seems very unlikely then it is just going to get worse for them once reta is available, putting sema at the third ranked choice at best. In the longer term sema is going to end up as the cheaper less preferable option to stay in the market at all, especially once more and more drugs start being approved. In the grey market I cannot think of any reason to use sema, except maybe as a low dose add on to higher doses of reta or tirz.
 
Let’s not forget that without the here pharma companies we wouldn’t have these wonderful drugs to help us be slim. Problem is they get too greedy and want more and more
 
I am a bit surprised that semaglutide is still fairly popular. Given it is not cheaper, is both less effective at weight loss and has more side effects than tirzepatide, it is really hard to think of a good reason for starting anyone on it in preference to tirz. It has more accumulated evidence for benefits outside of weight loss - for cardiovascular and kidney risks etc, but all the research on tirz so far strongly suggests it is a class effect and is very likely to be the same. Obviously if someone is already on it and it is working for obesity or diabetes switching makes little sense, but retaining old patients is not going to help their share price much.

Unfortunately for novo, lily just picked better drugs to develop or was luckier. Cagri was pretty disappointing for weight loss on its own, and combined with sema is nearly as good as tirz but with more side effects, and both oral ozempic and orfoglipron are also less effective and have more side effects than tirz. Cagri looks good as an add on to reta or tirz at low doses but given the different ownership , not likely to even get studies. Oral ozempic never got promoted much and was not released everywhere, it definitely is not available in Aus, maybe due to initial production limitations so they focused on the injectable version? Orfoglipron could end up popular if people want to avoid injections, I wonder if ozempic being around for so long and being talked about so much has reduced peoples' aversion to injectable drugs a bit?
Unless novo can get their triple agonist out before reta which seems very unlikely then it is just going to get worse for them once reta is available, putting sema at the third ranked choice at best. In the longer term sema is going to end up as the cheaper less preferable option to stay in the market at all, especially once more and more drugs start being approved. In the grey market I cannot think of any reason to use sema, except maybe as a low dose add on to higher doses of reta or tirz.

Novo weight-loss drug may preserve lean body mass better than Lilly's, study finds​

By Nancy Lapid Reuters - 17 minutes ago


* GLP-1 drugs yielding greater weight loss have worse effects on lean body mass

* Patients on tirzepatide lost more muscle and other non-fat tissues than patients on semaglutide

* Exercise during treatment is essential with both drugs, researchers say
April 16 (Reuters) - Eli Lilly's ( LLY ) GLP-1 drugtirzepatide yields greater weight loss on average than NovoNordisk's semaglutide, but at a greater expense tomuscles and connective tissues, according to a study publishedthis week ahead of peer review.

Tirzepatide, sold as Zepbound and Mounjaro, and semaglutide,under the brand names Wegovy and Ozempic, have become wildlypopular for weight loss and have demonstrated other healthbenefits, such as heart-protective properties. But there has been concern that they induce loss of muscle and other components of lean body mass along with fat.

The researchers analyzed data on roughly 1,800 patients using tirzepatide and 6,200 using semaglutide.

Tirzepatide was consistently associated with greater loss of lean body mass than semaglutide. Tirzepatide patients lost an average of 1.1% more lean body mass after three months and 2%after 12 months of continuous use, the analysis by Massachusetts-based data analytics firm, nference, found.

"This suggests that patients shouldn't simplistically be thinking, 'I want to lose X amount of weight and I'll go with the option that delivers greater weight loss,'" said study leader Venky Soundararajan of nference on the study data published online.

Patients were tracked before and during treatment either with low-radiation scans or with "smart" scales that estimate body fat percentage, muscle mass, bone mass, and other components.

The study cannot explain why lean body mass loss was greater with tirzepatide, which mimics the hormones GLP-1 and GIP, compared with semaglutide, which only mimics GLP-1. Mimicking the hormones slows digestion and makes patients feel full.

A Novo spokesperson did not comment on the current study, but said changes in muscle mass did not significantly differ between semaglutide and placebo groups in clinical trials, and physical function was preserved.

A Lilly spokesperson said fat loss achieved with healthy dieting is similarly accompanied by lean body mass loss.

In its late-stage clinical trial, "the ratio of fat-mass loss to lean-mass loss for patients treated with tirzepatide was generally consistent with that reported in lifestyle-based treatments for obesity," the spokesperson said.

STUDY DETAILS

Roughly 10% of tirzepatide users who lost more than 20% oftheir total body weight were found to have lost more than 5% of their lean body mass. That was true for fewer than 7% of semaglutide users who lost the same percentage of body weight.

Decreased exercise tolerance during treatment was linked with greater lean body mass loss in both groups, but to a greater extent in tirzepatide-treated patients.

Higher doses, longer treatment, and the presence of musculoskeletal pain before treatment began were also associatedwith greater lean body mass decline with both drugs, theresearchers found.

"It's a vicious cycle," Soundararajan said. "If you start with a drug which puts you at a greater probability of lean body mass loss... and you have a preexisting history of musculoskeletal diseases, it puts you at greater risk of lower tolerance to exercise. And if you're not exercising when you're on these medicines, you are essentially causing attrition of lean body mass."

nference funding comes from health systems, institutional investors, and venture capital firms.(Reporting by Nancy Lapid; Editing by Michele Gershberg and Bill Berkrot)
 
It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped.

I feel like anything that's a pill will still be widely prescribed. So many doctors treat their patients like they are too stupid to give themselves injections. Many of them are still prescribing older drugs that have absolutely pathetic results even in the best trials. It also seems that many people have lost the capability to learn how to do new or "hard" things like giving themselves shots. So can't completely blame the doctors but so few give any option past their preferred med.
 
I feel like anything that's a pill will still be widely prescribed. So many doctors treat their patients like they are too stupid to give themselves injections. Many of them are still prescribing older drugs that have absolutely pathetic results even in the best trials. It also seems that many people have lost the capability to learn how to do new or "hard" things like giving themselves shots. So can't completely blame the doctors but so few give any option past their preferred med.
Some patients are too stupid and too lazy (add in too fearful) to give themselves an injection. PBMs will still design formularies to dispense the cheapest medication first. Insurers & employers will still limit accessibility to manage down premiums.
 
EL bought the process from Genentech, who developed the first synthetic insulin product which was manufactured using recombinant DNA inserted into e.coli and fermented.

I worked for Genentech (2007) when one of my coworkers was stealing HGH from the clinical production line and selling it at his brother’s bodybuilding store. At the time it was one of the largest bust of the sales of steroids.

https://www.mercurynews.com/2007/09...man-growth-hormone-sold-it-in-san-jose-store/
he didn't happen to work in/run IT, be tall, runner's slender, live on Lombard, and be from CA (the country), did he?

just askin' just totally rando questions. heh. cause why would he be on the production line, right?

Can't read the article.
 
Novo’s stock is falling while its profits and projected growth tank.

It turns out orforglipron isn’t as effective as hoped. Combined with the fact Tirz is more effective and that they can’t stop the flood of grey market and compounded Sema, they are bleeding money. I won’t be shedding any tears if those greedy bastards go under.

I'm sure they will weather the storm having gross revenues higher than there countries gdp
 

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